A look at the growth in Latin America reveals slower and relatively volatile attributes, even when adjusted for its’ emerging market classification. GDP growth in Latin America equaled 2.8 percent on average between 2000 and 2016. Peru has been the quickest growing Latin averaging 5.2 percent per year. Regional growth’s volatility has been attributed to commodity booms of oil, mineral, and some agricultural products. Latin America derives much of its GDP from the expansion of the labor force; the changing demographics in the labor force are due in part of an increased participation of women. With 66 million more workers in sixteen years, the labor force transition makes up 72 percent of the
Shortly after US Corporate High Yield credit spreads reached their tightest levels, investors are now worried that the credit cycle is turning, evident in last year’s abrupt about- face in spreads. Investors are aware that the economy remains the most important driver of defaults but appear to underestimate forecasts of US GDP growth remaining above trend. Though a partially inverted yield curve is raising grave concerns, other leading indicators of recession such as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index stand at levels that are more consistent with continued economic growth than an imminent descent into recession. Since high yield firms generate almost three-fourths of their sales dom
Emerging market dollar debt carries no immunity to global risk aversion gripping markets in late 2018. While Argentina’s near sovereign collapse received a significant amount of media attention, the weakness was broad-based, with nearly all major constituents in the red. All told, last year’s 4.3% loss represented Emerging market dollar debts first decline since 2013 (when measured annually). Even prior to October, sell-offs in EMs since the currencies turbulence began in April has weighed on the overall level of debt-raising. Investors might be familiar with the current environment; in 2018 emerging markets have sold the smallest amount of dollar-denominated debt in six years, as the sharp
