As the clock on Brexit negotiations is ticking, Britain’s political winds are shifting. In two months, the European Council decides whether Brexit negotiations can advance to focus solely on future relationship and any potential transitional deal based on a report of the Chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Currently the logistics of managing the actual political exit of Britain are slowing down proceedings.
To understand future developments, it’s vital to begin with an understanding of the events leading up to Brexit.
Keith Knuttson of Integrale Advisors says:” Over the past few months an array of invalidated speculation has played a part in shaping the misunderstandings regarding the proceedings in the UK. It is vital to remain conscious of ideas that were based on erroneous information.”
David Cameron spoke of Brexit for the first time in February 2013: a referendum on Britain’s membership to the EU if the Conservative party is elected in the next general election. At the time, Cameron was trying to quell euro-skeptics within his own party.
A year and a half later Scotland held a referendum on its own independence from the UK, but voters wanted to remain in the UK. The sentiment of Scots to remain in the UK and Europe caused further division within Brexit negotiations months later.
In May 2015 Cameron’s party wins and British voters elect a majority Conservative government. During his victory speech Cameron mentions that there will be a referendum on EU membership. Cameron announces that he has negotiated a deal with EU leaders which will give Britain a “special status” if it stays in the EU.
Then on February 2016 Cameron announces his official position and starts to campaign for the remain movement. A previous political ally to Cameron, Boris Johnson, proceeds to join the leave campaign on February 21st – shifting tides towards Brexit.
On June 16th 2016 ardent remain campaigner Jo Cox is shot and stabbed in the street in her electoral district in northern England by the extremist Thomas Mair who shouted “Britain first, Keep Britain independent, Britain always comes first.” Both sides temporarily suspended campaigning ahead of the referendum.
One week later the UK voted 51.1% in favor of Brexit with a turnout of 72.2%.
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